Wednesday, December 16, 2009

James Montier Presentation: Ten lessons (not) learnt

A reader sent this in and i think you'll all find it quite interesting.

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Just thought I'd add the slides from the Montier presentation from last week. They may not make sense without dialogue but should be mainly self-evident. Particular ones to emphasise were;

Slide 3 - Economists can't forecast for toffee - Can't forecast a recession even when in one
Slide 4 - Analyst forecasting is also shaky. After 1 year, they are 50% out
Slide 7 - PMs in aggregate do not take huge bets relative to benchmarks
Slide 12 - Framework of a bubble
Slide 14 - Valuation determines return
Slide 16 - On a current Graham and Dodd PE, S&P slightly above fair value
Slide 19 - Average holding period of investors is now under 1 year compared with 10 years in the 1940s
Slide 22 -Sentiment appearing bullish
Slide 29 - Lessons from recent market turbulence

J Montier Presentation