What business model do you think is the next that will see significant disruption impacting its competitive position (for example, the newspaper industry is forever changed)?
That's a really tough question. I think the human mind is hard-wired to think linearly. We've evolved this way..
We live in a world now where industry and sectors are changing and moving exponentially rather than linearly. Medicine and healthcare used to be linear – they took a long time and it was easy to predict the future. Now they are both becoming exponential and its much harder to predict the future. We typically avoid industries that have exponential payoffs – we don't want to get run over.
We look for hard assets like land, resources, brand, where its worth something and will be worth something in the future where change won't impact it. Any industry that has a lot of technology – software, healthcare – will experience a lot of change. Microsoft is a company that might experience significant disruption in the future yet most people today look at this company linearly without realizing that there could be game changing events in its future.